Cliff lee

In the Zone

Lots of thoughts this morning about the Ryan Dempster trade. I never really had a chance to get fired up about landing Ryan Dempster. The whole thing caught me off-guard. Because so much talk surrounded Dempster’s refusal of a trade to the Braves and his insistence on wanting to be a Dodger, I never really considered him among the players we would even go after. It’s no secret that I wanted us to trade for Cliff Lee. I knew we were making a run at Zack Greinke. It all happened so fast and at a time when it looked like we would come up empty on a starting pitcher.

Dempster was not great in his first few Ranger outings. In a couple he was awful. But I think part of that was the suddenness he experienced in the deal. I would imagine at the same time I figured we wouldn’t get a pitcher in a deadline deal, Dempster was figuring to remain a Cub. Last night the real Ryan Dempster showed up.

Over the years I watched a lot of the Cubs. Not so much the last few, because of MLB At Bat, but back when Ryan first became a Cub, WGN was still a place, that if you are a baseball fan, you could turn to catch a game. But I did get to see him both as a starter and a closer. He always struck me as an un-rattle-able guy. He was methodic and always seemed to have a plan for each hitter he faced. We saw that guy last night. He went out and got the job done. In fact at the end of his night, as he retired his eleventh consecutive batter, it hardly seemed he had thrown 111 pitches.

The Ranger offense was the Ranger offense. Well the new Ranger offense. While Josh Hamilton seems to have turned things around, he did strike out twice last night. The new Ranger offense is being led by David Murphy. Murphy was red-hot again last night going 2 for 3 with 2 RBIs and walked once. He is playing so well that Ron Washington, who is a platoon guy in the bottom part of the order, is not platooning Murphy anymore.Say hello to the new full-time left fielder for the Rangers. Other highlights from the game, Ian Kinsler, still trying to get back on track, walking twice and a ridiculous play by Elvis Andrus on a ball in the hole between short and third. It’s one that happens in real life far less than it does on my PS3.

Tonight the Rangers face Chris Tillman. This is one of those scenarios that I had talked about earlier. Tillman, who started of nicely, has been struggling, especially in his last two starts. It seems like a nice setup for us. But these guys always seem to make their bones on the Rangers. His last start, he threw 110 pitches before he was pulled with two out in the fifth.  If we work him and take some pitches, we can send him out of the game. We have Scott Feldman pitching tonight. After great starts from Harrison and Dempster, we’ll see if Scott wants to join the “Game One Starters Club”. We have no clear choice for game one of a playoff series and it looks like we have a min-competition going.

I like it.

Ranger Bats Blow Up

Everybody, after last night’s game, either said let’s see if it carries over or this could turn things around. I saw something in that game last night and that was swagger. I knew immediately after we plated a run right after the Angels jumped out to a quick 2-0 lead that we are back. And the best part? Not everybody truly is yet. But in our good times, there is a rhythm to how we score runs. It;s different guys at different times. We caught the Angels again tonight and then put them in the rear view for good. 16-9 the final. We have our swagger back. Starting out about the 4th inning last night, we sent a message…the pennant flies over Arlington, come and get it.

The only real downers for the night were Ryan Dempster’s first outing and Joe Nathan continuing to struggle. I’m sure Wash put him out there to build his confidence after being rocked last night, but it didn’t appear to help. In fact it might have made it worse. Dempster? Well he gets a pass. I think more of his innings will be like his second tonight than the rest of his first Ranger start. He has had a very emotional week and then was introduced to the Ballpark in Arlington jet stream. Cliff Lee wasn’t all that sharp in his first few outings as a Ranger either.

Other notes from tonight’s game (I actually made some)….Mike Olt looked as opposite of nervous as he could. Got his first Major League hit out-of-the-way pretty quick and scorched another ball that he was robbed of. I tried to follow Olt as much as possible but judging by Wash’s plan to use him more at first than third, he obviously made some real progress there….It was nice to see us “handle” C.J. Wilson tonight….two games later and we see Ian Kinsler is suddenly red-hot…Josh had 4 RBI’s tops on the night….Roy Oswalt got the ‘W’ and looked more determined than he had to date as a Ranger….Geovany Soto had a GREAT first night. Not only key hits, but a couple of times after visits to the mound, whoever he visited with got either a key out or a strikeout….The Angels limp out of Arlington exactly five games out, the same deficit they came in on…One last note….Cliff Lee is in play again. He was put on trade waivers today by the Phillies. Still doubtful we will do anything, but I won’t rule it out. Most likely scenario involves us eating ALL of his contract.

It Was a Great News, Bad News Kind of Day

We’ll start with the good news. For the hearty fans following along on the interwebs and Twitter, the closing moments of today’s trade deadline certainly took us from a reality check that would see us carrying through the rest of the season on faith and total relief as we swept in and foiled the Yankees again. Tweets from the pundits pretty much had us out on everyone. Including one Ryan Scott Dempster. Who, if you did not know, was drafted by the Rangers way back in 1995. Dempster is battle worn and has even had Tommy John surgery, but that’s ok. He has mound presence and is just the kind of guy we need ti help us get back to the promised land. No he is not Cliff Lee, but after Roy Oswalt’s latest start, it became apparent we needed someone. Here’s more on that idea. Zack Greinke has an ongoing battle with social anxiety disorder. Now he has shown he has it in check, but a playoff stretch is just the kind of thing that can set that off. I am sure it was one of the things discussed in the Rangers front office.  It would be tacky for me to elaborate further and probably was that I brought it up at all.

Dempster will battle and has terrific success, seemingly, the more trouble he is in. He spent a healthy chunk of his career as the Cubs closer. Bottom line, he handles pressure just fine. That would make him Nolan-esque. The cost? Two class A players. We’ll discuss them in a later post. But for the day, after our pickup last night of Geovany Soto (who happens to be Dempster’s favorite catcher to work with) the only things we didn’t get from our shopping list was a little bench help and another bullpen arm. Pending how everything is going, Alexi Ogando can fit the bullpen need, unless we need him to start. Which depends on Scott Feldman. By the way, Oswalt looks like he is headed for the pen. Until he finds his arm slot, let’s hope it’s for mop-up duty. We’ll see Dempster Thursday night as the current series with the Angels wraps up.

One more thing on what happens going forward, there is suddenly some support online, for the idea of bringing Mike Olt up sooner than later. I can think that it is at least in the heads of the front office, because of our stubbornness in keeping him.  In fact someone makes a good case for calling him up and move Michael Young into the bench role. 

Now the bad news. We won’t be seeing Neftali Feliz on the mound anytime soon. In fact maybe not until 2014. Turns out he had a serious problem. He is scheduled to have Tommy John surgery that shelves him for at least a year. I wasn’t totally counting on getting him back because he just hadn’t made any progress and the discovery of a more major problem came after he was scrubbed from a rehab outing.

As I finish this, the Angels and Rangers are into the second inning and Derek Holland looks good. So far. I hope he knows it’s time.

Welcome Dempster and Soto- the newest Rangers

Cliff Lee: Crunching the Numbers

I can’t go to bed without at least re-visiting this one more time.  I can’t find any exact numbers for what the Rangers offered Cliff Lee following the 2010 season. The Best I can do is find that late in the bidding, the Yankees reportedly offered him $23 million a year for five years. I know we beat that, but Lee took a similar deal in a place he felt he had a better chance to get back to the dance. Of course we know how that turned out. (sorry my new Philly readers)

Here’s the deal we had on the table:

MLB.com reported the Rangers offered six years and $138 million plus a seventh-year option. Yahoo! Sports reported that option could have pushed the value of the contract to $161 million. 

That works out to about $23 million a year. No idea of the details of the seventh year. But Lee would have been 39 with OUR deal. Everybody suddenly has heartburn over his age on the Philly deal. Doesn’t compute.

Here’s where Lee is in his Philadelphia contract (and feel free to comment if I am way off the mark here):

2012: $21.5 million 
2013: $25 million 
2014: $25 million 
2015: $25 million 
2016: $12.5 million buyout or $27.5 million option (the option vests at 200 innings pitched in 2015 or 400 innings pitched in 2014 and 2015 combined) 

So we’re talking about $6 mil. My thinking is, instead of asking the Phillies to pickup a large portion of that, why not just ask for $6-10 million. The extra four – for additional wear and tear.

Now I know we took that money and a year later and gave much of that to Yu Darvish but we didn’t anticipate the learning curve being what it is for Darvish. We get lee who can HELP Darvish, Holland and Harrison. For longer than just the rental time he spent with us in 2010. It’s a win-win.

When Nolan said we were slightly over budget to start the year, I have to believe that there is a budget part two. For the trade deadline. It’s time to tap into it. Let’s do this.

 

Bats Show Signs of Life…Oswalt, Not So Much

It was a gut wrenching night. Roy Oswalt definitely has something that is making him “different” from last season. The only thing the same may be the fact his lower back is giving him problems. Oswalt was mercifully removed after five and a third innings as the Angels hammered him. That hammering continued for the next couple of innings, but the good news? Josh Hamilton had his first multi-hit game since the 4th of July. His first THREE hit since May. Nelson Cruz and Mike Napoli both his prodigious homers. But the Rangers lost anyway 15-7. This being only the fourth time this season the boys lost when scoring seven runs or more. But while that was mostly ugly, the night took a different turn right after the game.

While most of us are looking for pitching help (especially after tonight), the Rangers picked up someone who could provide leadership behind the plate we are lacking right now. Mike Napoli has done a good a job and as we head down the stretch of his second full season with the Rangers we can see some of what Mike Scoscia had said about him before trading him to the Blue Jays. He’s “ok”. But our numbers throwing out would be base stealers are far short from what would be called “ok”. The Rangers have landed a catcher. Geovany Soto is now a Ranger. We traded a kid named Jake Brigham, who is 5-5 with a 3.48 ERA in Frisco. Soto will be under team control through next season.

I like Mike Napoli. I think he’s a good clubhouse guy too. But the writing is on the wall. Barring some spectacular finish to the season, Napoli’s agent will call Nolan Ryan and ask for money based on LAST year. I’m good with not paying that. The big question with Soto will be his ability to call a game. We’ll see. Soon.

I don’t know if we are done. I know the Cliff Lee deal is probably all but dead. It’s convoluted and complicated by too much money in Cliff’s “later” years. My idea about landing him and Pence is just not going to happen. It appears the Giants are about ready to pull out all of the stops to land Pence. Lee, we might get in the off-season. Our rotation is in such shambles right now even Josh Beckett is starting to look good. Reminds me of that line from The Big Chill. Rationalizations are better than sex. “Ever gone a week without a rationalization?”

It Was a Good Day….But….

You know those times when we are struggling and we lose a couple of games and you think about certain plays that could have made a huge difference? We got the win yesterday but the compilation of numbers from the White Sox series started being tallied and there was just one that said it all. For the three-game series we were 1 for 31 with runners in scoring position. While Scott Feldman was quietly putting together the best start of his career, we were 0 for 10. Z E R O for T E N. Yesterday  Adrian Beltre left five men on and Michael Young four.  All in all, besides the ten left in scoring position, we left 25 men on base. So far, Beltre in Josh’s old spot hasn’t worked out. But it’s hard to single out one when so many are having the problem. So much for the team meeting.

Back to Feldman. That’s two solid starts in a row for Scooter and he hasn’t lost in five starts. I think he wants to be that guy. While the team appears to think Alexi Ogando is the answer, maybe we let Scott stays until he proves he shouldn’t be there. And trust me that is very hard to say. But after his previous start he had a mental breakthrough that appears to be working. Oh the power of positive thinking.

I won’t make a big deal about the Angels being unable to help Zack Greinke yesterday because I remember how Cliff Lee didn’t rack up important wins for us until October. That keeps me modest in my smack talk. We don’t face him in this four-game set coming up, but we’ll see Santana, Weaver, Haren and Wilson. I think we should stay with the new batting order if for no other reason that Josh Hamilton had “meaningful” at-bats yesterday. We walked twice and did not strikeout. Speaking of walks, I don’t think Michael Young has walked since 2011. While it seems that way, it’s more like since early June.

On the trade front, it’s still quiet. We dropped out in the Shin-Soo Choo derby yesterday and it appears everyone wants Mike Olt to be included in a deal. There is a more than a whisper rumored deal with the Royals. Justin Grimm for Jonathon Broxton. I don’t know where that one stands but seemingly every time you try to deal for a closer who you want to pitch the seventh inning, the closer never appears happy about it.  Plus Grimm just had an outstanding outing. Having a deep minor league system isn’t as easy at trade time as you would think it would be. We’re hurting for starting pitcher and everyone wants a piece of Grimm and Perez and they appear to be so close to ready. Olt too. This is all part of the new master plan and the bottom line is, we may just have to eat it this season and go for it with the guys we have. The asking price on some of these guys outrageous and it would probably be less expensive in the off-season.

I just typed that so I can begin to wrap my head around it.

If We Don’t Go After Lee, We Should Still Pursue Pence

Reading the Dallas Morning News and comments from Evan Grant (if you haven’t realized it- I LOVE Evan’s work), he makes a good point. I am not sure how our $100 mil offer to Cliff Lee was structured, but it probably didn’t include a back-loaded deal that would have seen him earn the most past the age of 35. That is exactly how is deal is structured with the Phillies. I believe in the business model the team is using, even though as a fan, it is sometimes frustrating. So let’s just say for argument’s sake, we are concentrating on Zack Greinke and Josh Johnson. I do not believe our pursuit, if we have any, of James Shields is real. Have you seen his numbers? He’s just a more talented version of Derek Holland. A great outing followed by a bad one and two mediocre ones.

That said, I still see the need to add Hunter Pence. Maybe to a lesser extent Shane Victorino, but he is also a rental. Our outfield situation, while plenty populated, isn’t providing the numbers we need and certainly not the numbers we are used to. Pence, who strikes out a little much for our taste, is still a solid alternative to David Murphy and Craig Gentry. Put on top of that struggles by Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz and he could quickly work himself into a more full-time position. He also provides a little backup in case we lose Hamilton after the season. I said “little”, he is not Josh Hamilton. But he is better than Josh is right now.  The only problem with this is that I am sure the Brewers and Marlins want Mike Olt included and I would be the Phillies would also want him.

I do know this. Don’t believe much of what you read. I just go back to the original Cliff Lee deal and it surprised everyone. Not that we wanted him, but the rumor mill was clueless as to when a deal would happen.  It’s a tight-lipped bunch in the front office.

Offense Struggles….Again

We left eight men on base last night. Michael Young and Craig Gentry were both 0-2 with runners in scoring position. Josh Hamilton got an RBI but was 0-4 to drop his average to .290 and the free-fall continues. All of that was the cause of last night’s loss, not the mini-meltdown of Joe Nathan. Joe got two quick outs before walking two and giving up an oops of a hit that plated the eventual winning run. That was all secondary. Vicente Padilla is the story from last night.

Padilla has a long and storied history of hitting batters. Last night he hit Adrian Beltre in the head. Padilla’s stuff has gotten so bad, he has upped the ante on trying to intimidate hitters. Most recently he and Yankee first baseman Mark Teixera exchanged barbs after Padilla sent Teixera to the ground. Teixeira homered in his first two career at-bats against Padilla, in 2005, when Teixeira was with the Rangers and Padilla was with the Phillies. He had not gotten another hit since then — but he’d been hit three times. The two were teammates with the Rangers in 2006 and 2007. My problem with the whole thing is we need to respond. His own teammates, Teixera included when he was with the Rangers, do not like Padilla doing this. They fear retribution.  The Red Sox should be nervous tonight. The message should be sent early in the game. The problem is, Derek Holland is on the mound. He may do it without meaning to.

I was still fuming last night, well after the game was over. A head shot is bad on so many levels. While Beltre was checked out and cleared from concussion land, blurred vision could be an outcome of this.  Obviously a batters vision is his most important asset. I don’t think we need to be aiming for anyone’s head, but last night, sending Tanner Scheppers out to start the ninth and answer, would have been fine with me. I say Scheppers because whoever answered would have surely been tossed and probably fined. But maybe the league might finally take a look at a certain kook named Padilla.

On the trade front, just by reading all of the rumors and gossip, it appears that Greinke is target number one for the Rangers. Josh Johnson of the Marlin Fire sale Johnsons would be next. Only speculation about a Ranger call on Cliff Lee and nothing concrete. It’s possible it was done and the answer was a firm no. But Cole Hamels signed a ridiculous deal (six-year s$144 million) with the Phillies and they might be willing.  They are paying out a ton of money to just four players, including Lee.  I don’t know about Pence or if even five players (as mentioned below) would even come close to what the Phillies want. But with Lee, he isn’t just a known commodity on the field, he is a known commodity in the clubhouse.  That means almost as much.

A Bittersweet Day

We’ll start off with the game last night. That’s the good news. Our bats were lively and Josh Hamilton actually knocked in a couple of runs. Mike Napoli homered again. And it was a beautiful shot to deep left. The most shocking news from last night’s 9-1 win over the Red Sox? A quality start from Scott Feldman. Something telling from Scott last night was his admission that he thinks too negatively sometimes. Last night, he said, he tried to stay positive.  If his problems end up being mostly in his head, then that would be immensely more fixable than any mechanical problems he might have. The reason why this is important? Well that’s the bad news.

We lost Colby Lewis for the season yesterday.  The problem he had with “forearm tendonitis” is more serious than that. Add to that Roy Oswalt’s tricky back and we have problems. We have Feliz on a rehab assignment and Alexi Ogando struggling with his command. Both would be decent options, if they were throwing like they used to.  Tonight Martin Perez will be pitching and we will have quite a few scouts in the stands. Scouts from the Phillies, Brewers and Marlins more than likely. Here’s what the rumor mill is churning out now…

We want an elite pitcher. That is a very short list. One of those pitchers, Zack Greinke, throws tonight against the Phillies. Coincidentally, Cliff Lee will be pitching for the Phils. Greinke has had issues of late and would only be a rental. Another scenario, which really doesn’t have rumor legs yet, is a deal for Lee. Before the Phillies would even consider that, they would need to sign Cole Hamels. Not that we don’t want Hamels, but he would be a rental and if he doesn’t take this deal the Phillies are offering (rumored to be in the six-year $127 mil neighborhood) would almost certainly guarantee we wouldn’t consider being able to sign him. That makes him, for sure, a rental. But continuing on with Lee, Jamey Newberg this morning, said something like Lee and Hunter Pence. Now we would lose Olt and Perez just about guaranteed (plus at least 2 more).  But neither are rentals. It would also free up David Murphy to be traded for some bullpen reinforcements. Nolan said it’s time to consider everything but not panic. But with Colby out and Oswalt questionable, it turns what was only a “what if” situation, into something a little more serious. Not for now. But for October.

Lee and Pence wouldn’t fix everything, but it couldn’t hurt.